Breaking: PCE Report & NVDA Earnings – August 26, 2026

— Ben, Find Better Trades

Futures are dead flat this morning, folks. Everyone’s holding their breath for the PCE report and Nvidia’s earnings. This isn’t a day for guessing; it’s a day for reacting after the dust settles.

What Just Happened

S&P futures are unchanged this morning, with Nasdaq futures down a slight 0.2%. This flat opening precedes two major market movers: the critical PCE inflation data and Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings call.

Bond yields are up 1-3 basis points, causing the curve to bear flatten. This gives back some of yesterday’s gains and implies some lingering inflation concern despite the static equity open.

Nvidia and Marvell are both showing a positive 0.2% pre-market. This suggests expectations are positive for these individual stocks, but the broader tech picture is very mixed.

Software is down 1.3%, and Memory is down 80 basis points, with Korea also down 46 basis points. However, Unprofitable Tech is surprisingly up 83 basis points, showing a selective risk-on appetite.

Cyclicals and Defensives are mixed across the board. Healthcare is standing out to the upside, while Energy is clearly to the downside today, stumbling into the news.

What It Means for Your Trades

Nvidia’s print will move the entire semiconductor space, plain and simple. Watch tickers like AMD, TSM, and ASML for immediate sympathetic moves, up or down, depending on their guidance and outlook.

The PCE report is the real wild card for broader market direction. A hot number means more rate hike fears and a probable market pullback; a cool one could spark a powerful relief rally across equities.

If PCE comes in hotter than expected, expect bond yields to climb further, likely pushing the 10-year well above recent highs. This will directly pressure growth stocks, especially those with high valuations and thin margins that rely on cheap money.

Healthcare’s strength today is a tell, showing it’s a defensive play. It signals some underlying nervousness in the market ahead of these big announcements. Traders are looking for safety, and healthcare provides it.

Conversely, Energy’s weakness suggests traders aren’t betting on a major economic boom from this data. A strong PCE print could reverse this quickly, but for now, it’s a drag on the sector.

The bounce in unprofitable tech looks like a gamble, pure and simple. I wouldn’t chase it unless you have a strong conviction on Nvidia’s results and a high risk tolerance. This could easily be a bull trap if the news disappoints.

Remember, a strong Nvidia print might mean more for the broader ecosystem than just NVDA itself. Look for ripple effects in AI infrastructure, data centers, and even specific software plays.

My Take

I’m staying cautious today, and you should too. The market is too balanced, and the catalysts are too big to make a bold directional bet right now. Don’t try to be a hero; heroes get burned.

Wait for the PCE number to drop and Nvidia to report. Then you can react to real data, not speculation or pre-market noise. This isn’t a game of predicting; it’s a game of responding to facts.

If PCE comes in hot, I’m shorting growth. If Nvidia disappoints, the entire AI narrative gets questioned. The reactions will be swift and brutal, so be ready to act decisively.

I’ll be watching for a clear break in either direction post-announcements, then I’ll execute. Until then, protect your capital and keep your powder dry. Conviction: moderate — headline risk remains.

Macro Pulse FAQ

Q: Is PCE going to move the Fed?

A: Absolutely. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, not CPI. A higher number signals more rate hikes, period, and directly impacts future policy.

Q: How do Nvidia earnings affect other stocks?

A: Nvidia is a bellwether for AI and the broader tech sector. Strong earnings can lift the entire space, especially other chipmakers; weakness will drag everything down with it.

Q: Should I trade before these reports?

A: No. It’s gambling, not trading. Wait for the news to break, absorb it, then make your move with conviction. Control your risk, always.

Q: What’s “de-risking into NVDA / MRVL”?

A: Traders are closing out other positions or buying defensive assets to reduce overall portfolio risk. They do this before major, unpredictable events like these earnings reports.